On Obamacare’s proposed Medicaid expansion, a number of governors have decided take the federal money and run, reasoning that their own taxpayers won’t see any savings if they turn down the federal money while other states accept the deal. Even so, are governors figuring the long-run costs correctly? According to a new analysis by The Heritage Foundation, a few big states that already have bloated Medicaid programs—like New York—will see savings, but nationally most will end up paying more for Medicaid in the long-run. Forty states will “see costs exceed savings when the federal match rate is lowered after the first three years.” Here, for example, is what the projections for Florida show:

For more state estimates, see “Obamacare and the Medicaid Expansion: How Does Your State Fare?” by Drew Gonshorowski, The Foundry, March 5.

And those estimates assume the federal government continues to provide the same matching rate indefinitely. What happens if it doesn’t? Will governors then start kicking people off the Medicaid rolls? Of course, by then the governors are not likely to be the same people who decided to expand today.