And that’s a problem since one of the main ideas behind ObamaCare is to force everyone into the insurance pool so that the young will cross-subsidize the old, explains David Hogberg:
The Obama Administration estimates that it will need about 2.7 million 18-30-year-olds to join the exchanges next year if the exchanges are to work. While this study examined those aged 18-34, a quick run of the data shows that there are about 4.3 million 18-30-year-old single individuals who would be eligible for the exchanges. Of those about 2.9 million have a $500 incentive to avoid the exchange and about 2.38 million have a $1,000 incentive. Even if we assume that those who do not buy insurance are limited to those with the $1,000 incentive, the exchanges would still come up about 780,000 short of the 2.7 million 18-30-year-olds needed to avoid a death spiral. [Internal citations omitted.] [National Center for Public Policy Research, August 2013]
As Hogberg notes, when the Obama administration announced last month that it was suspending both the reporting requirements on employers and the protections against fraud in the exchanges, it effectively suspended the mandate but also gave people an opportunity to get subsidies by lying. Maybe that was the point.